Williams prices have started to settle and £5k seems to be the psychological figure amongst enthusiasts, where the price goes up or down according to condition (one recently went for almost £8k on here). I dont think theyll fall now. There will always be the odd one thats being sold by someone unaware of their cult status, so keep an eye out for a bargain! But, just as with the Cup today, they were usually bought by informed buyers over the regular 16v (172).
The 172s will continue to depreciate for some time to come, although theyll depreciate relatively less the lower their price goes. The 172s are in a market where hot hatches are more common than theyve ever been, so I doubt theyll be making the same money as a used Clio Valver at the same age. I reckon that the Phase1 172 may be more sought after amongst enthusiasts as time goes on: although the Phase1 5 GT Turbo doesnt seem to attract more money than the Phase2, it does have that "rare" cachet amongst enthusiasts.
If you buy a Williams, or even a mint 16v, it wont really depreciate - so if youre of a cautious disposition it will give you peace of mind to know that a fire sale should cover most of any loan.
Id ask yourself if you want or need a new(ish) car - the depreciation can be hard to justify. If you sell your 16v and get a Willy itll cost you about £1-3k all in, which you can save in a year!